The no lay method is an advanced accumulator strategy. It is extremely high variance and should only be completed by experienced members alongside a large matched betting bankroll. 

You maybe thinking that this method is just straight punting. It is not, as there is a bonus attached to the bet and this gives the bet a positive expected value.

The benefits of using this method are that you will not have to sit waiting for matches to finish, you can check back after the matches have all finished. The downside of the offer is that we can potentially lose our full stake.

However, over time we will profit from this method. Check your calculations using the OddsMonkey Accumulator calculator to check the expected value.

We will use the example of Ladbrokes Insurance Offer. This offer states that:

• Place a 5+ Fold Football accumulator on selected leagues and if one leg lets you down we’ll refund your stake as a Free Bet up to £10.
• Minimum odds per leg are 1/10 (1.1 or greater per leg) and 3/1 (4.0) for the accumulator.

Example

The below example shows us a bet we have placed at Ladbrokes. I am not worried about any overlap of games, I have simply used the oddsmatcher to find the closest matches. By using low priced teams we increase the probability of the accumulator winning.

THE 3 SCENARIOS

I have placed my £10 bet and I now have the following 3 scenarios:

All teams win. Great, this is what we had hoped for, we have an instant profit.
One of the teams lets us down and we get a free bet. For example, if we placed a £10 bet and one team let us down, we would get a £10 free bet, from which will retain around £8 (80% of the free bet amount). Therefore we will be £2 down.
More than 1 of the teams loses. Here we will lose the stake from our bet. So in the Ladbrokes example, we would be £10 down.


If I did this accumulator 100 times, Based on the probability I would expect,

All teams to win 22 times ~ 22 x £30.44 = £669.68
1 team to lose 39 times ~ 39 x -£2 = -£78
More than 1 team to lose 39 times ~ 39 x -£10 = -£390
So using this method, over 100 bets we would expect to be up ~ £669.68 - £78 - £390 = £201.68

Remember, when using this method you can potentially lose your full stake. If you are using this method, you must be aware of this and trust the expected value of the accumulator over a period of time.